
Jonathan Toews is one of 3 Chicago Blackhawks that are RFA's this summer.
Unrestricted free agents (UFA’s) are the most hyped free agents in the NHL but are they the best free agents? Last week, we looked at unrestricted free agents in October and today, we’ll look at restricted free agents in November.
Since the lockout, things have changed and the league has become a younger league. Top draft picks used to require a few years of ‘seasoning’ because they could crack the NHL, and even then, it would take a few more years before they became impact players. Yet in today’s league, we have 18 year olds that flat-out dominate men in their 30’s. The emergence of young talent across the league makes restricted free agents (RFA) a better deal that UFA’s. Here are some of next summer’s top RFA’s:
Bobby Ryan – Anaheim Ducks
Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $765,000/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $3.5 Million/season
Fantana’s Thoughts: Bobby Ryan exploded into the NHL last season, his first full year in the league, where he scored 31 times and was a finalist for the Calder Trophy. With the likelihood of retirement looming for Teemu Selanne, Ryan becomes an even more critical component of Anaheim’s future. $3.5 Million per season might seem pretty rich for a guy who will only have 2.5 years of NHL experience under his belt, but if stretched over 4 or 5 years, could look like a steal.
Ondrej Pavelec – Atlanta Thrashers
Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $850,000/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $3 Million/season
Fantana’s Thoughts: After watching Pavelac steal the show against the Sens on Halloween (he made 50 saves!), I’m convinced he’ll be Atlanta’s future starting goalie. During the game, CBC’s Garry Galley said that Pavelac was a few years away from becoming a star goalie in the NHL but I think it’ll happen sooner than that. This year looks like his breakthrough season and keeping Pavelac around long-term could help Atlanta keep Kovalchuk in the fold too. The key in resigning Pavelac won’t so much be about money, but rather, giving him the starting goaltender position next season.
Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith – Chicago Blackhawks
Value of Toews Contract on September 1st, 2009: $850,000/season
Value of Kane’s Contract on September 1st, 2009: $875,000/season
Value of Keith’s Contract on September 1st, 2009: $1.9 Million/season
Value of All 3’s Contracts on November 1st, 2009: $4.5 Million/season
Fantana’s Thoughts: Chicago have a big problem and the clock is ticking. Three of their best players are RFA’s and they’re all due for big raises next year. Chicago’s best bet is to try and negotiate with all three together to keep the core of their team in tact. Having said that, I think it’s clear that something, rather someone or some people, have to give. Names like Patrick Sharp and Kris Versteeg come to mind. And if the Hawks are really lucky, they’ll find a team willing to take Brian Campbell, but don’t count on it.
Kyle Quincey – Colorado Avalanche
Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $550,000/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $3 Million/season
Fantana’s Thoughts: Quincey broke out last year with L.A. and looked great quarter-backing their powerplay, scoring 38 points. He’s one of the reasons why Colorado are off to such a torrid start too, scoring 8 points and being +4. Comparable salaries are Marek Zidlicky in Minnesota ($3.5 Million) and Joe Corvo ($2.75 Million), though I think Quincey is better defensively than Corvo and Zidlicky.
Josh Harding – Minnesota Wild
Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $1.1 Million/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $2.75 Million/season
Fantana’s Thoughts: Minnesota are off to a slow start and as usual, it’s their offense that’s letting them down. Well, that and all their injuries. Either way, you have to wonder how long they’re going to hold on to Josh Harding, who happens to be their best trading chip to acquire another forward. I think Harding will get $2.75 Million next season, but it won’t be in Minnesota. Like Pavelac, the most important aspect of the negotiation will be whether Harding’s a starter next year or not.
Marc Staal – New York Rangers
Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $765,000/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $3.5 Million/season
Fantana’s Thoughts: Marc Staal is probably one of the most underrated defensemen in the league, though that may change with his next contract next year, especially since he’s on pace to have a career season. When you watch the Rangers play, Staal is their go-to guy when it comes to shutting down the opponent. The only problem is that New York will be tight against the cap next year, and they’ve got Dan Girardi and Vinny Prospal, among others to resign.
Braydon Coburn – Philadelphia Flyers
Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $1.4 Million/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $3 Million/season
Fantana’s Thoughts: I’m still amazed Atlanta traded Coburn for Alexei Zhitnik! Having said that, Philadelphia may have to trade Coburn themselves as they’ve already got $46 Million committed for next year including only 3 defensemen and no starting goalie. Coburn’s easily worth $3 Million a year, especially if that can be stretched out to 4+ years. The only way the Flyers can keep him is by trading one of their forwards – Scott Hartnell is most likely to go but the Flyers would like to move Daniel Briere first.
Kris Letang – Pittsburgh Penguins
Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $625,000/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $3 Million/season
Fantana’s Thoughts: If the NHL goes to the Olympics in 2014 in Russia, I think Letang will be on this team. He seems to get better with every month and he didn’t look out of place last year when Ryan Whitney and Sergei Gonchar went down with big injuries. His 33 points last year, plus the 13 points he scored in the playoffs make him a value part of Pittsburgh’s future. The problem is money, and I can’t see Pittsburgh going much higher than $3 Million a year so I expect Letang to resign in Steeltown for only 2 or 3 years.
Devin Setoguchi – San Jose Sharks
Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $765,000/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $3.5 Million/season
Fantana’s Thoughts: Playing alongside guys like Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton will certainly help you score some goals. Just ask Setoguchi, who scored 31 goals last year for San Jose. He’s in the same boat as Bobby Ryan in terms of experience and goal scoring and I think they’ll wind up with similar-sized contracts. Expect both to point to Phil Kessel’s deal in Toronto as a comparable for dollars and term.
Jonas Gustavsson – Toronto Maple Leafs
Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $810,000/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $2.75 Million/season

Jonas Gustavsson will be an RFA this summer.
Fantana’s Thoughts: The Monster has finally arrived in Toronto, having played well on the team’s road trip this past week. Notably, he scored the Leafs’ only victory of the year against Anaheim. If Gustavsson continues his strong play, it’s very likely he’ll become Toronto’s starting goaltender next season. I’m sure that won’t stop the ‘J.S. Giguere to Toronto’ rumour though.
Ryan Kesler – Vancouver Canucks
Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $1.75/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $4.5 Million/season
Fantana’s Thoughts: Ryan Kesler is the straw that stirs the drink for the Canucks and Vancouver can’t afford to let him go. Dave Nonis will get him resigned, but I hear Kesler doesn’t want to take a ‘hometown discount’. Regardless, it’s hard to place a value on Kesler and consequently, Vancouver have no choice but to pay Kesler market value.
Nicklas Backstrom – Washington Capitals
Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $850,000/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $5 Million/season
Fantana’s Thoughts: Backstrom is one of the elite playmakers in the NHL and I’d be shocked if Washington didn’t resign him. I’d also be surprised if he didn’t want to stay to play with guys like Alex Ovechkin and Mike Green. Based on Backstrom’s point-per-game average over his 2 season career thus far, I’m expecting Washington to sign him to a long-term deal, somewhere in the 5-8 year neighbourhood.
Alexander Semin – Washington Capitals
Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $5 Million/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $6 Million/season
Fantana’s Thoughts: Apparently contract negotiations have already begun and they aren’t going very smoothly. There’s still plenty of time to get a deal done, but Semin has a reputation for tough bargaining – he did go and play in Russia rather than reporting to the Caps AHL team during the lockout season and it wouldn’t be a big surprise if he defected to Russia again. I’m sure the KHL will offer him a lot of money. If it comes down to it, I think Washington would keep Backstrom over Semin.
Your Reporter in the Field,
Fantana
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Are the Toronto Maple Leafs for real?
December 14th, 2009After the Toronto Maple Leafs raced out to the worst start in franchise history, they quickly became the laughing stock of the NHL. They were the bud ends of many jokes and even us Stayclassy guys had some fun at their expense.
Ron Wilson of the Toronto Maple Leafs
As of Monday morning, the Leafs have gone 8-3-1 in their last twelve games and many die-hard Leafs fans are suggesting that Toronto are on the verge of tearing up the league. Hmm, really? I’m not sure if I’m buying that just yet. Over the past week or so, I’ve even heard discussion that Toronto have a good chance to finish in the top 4 in the Eastern Conference come playoff time. Huh? Wasn’t this the same team that, approximately a month ago, were said to have less than 2% chance of making the playoffs? Regardless, I’m going to dissect Toronto’s season to date and attempt to provide an accurate assessment where the Leafs are right now and where they’ll likely finish at the end of the year.
When Brian Burke revamped the Leafs and injected the team with a heavy dose of truculence and belligerence, we all knew that the 2009-2010 edition of the Maple Leafs would be a very different looking team. Toronto started the year a league-worst 1-7-1, and it’s safe to say that’s not what anybody expected. In fact, Toronto lost their first 8 games in a row, including 7 straight without registering a single point. Despite the brutal hockey the Leafs played, it’s probably fair to say that they weren’t as bad as they looked. Clearly, there was a lack of chemistry on the ice and in the dressing room. Players like Mike Komisarek and Luke Schenn were trying to do too much and it ended up costing Toronto big-time, as 6 of those first 8 losses saw the Leafs give up 4 goals or more.
The losses continued to pile up for Toronto, but the good news was that at least they were getting some points. Toronto lost each of their next 4 games in overtime and it looked as though they were making some progress. The YTD record now stood at 1-7-5 – yep, still last place and Leafs fans were becoming increasingly frustrated with the team.
Phil Kessel makes his classy debut with the Toronto Maple Leafs
Hope was on the way, as Phil Kessel made his long-awaited and highly anticipated debut. To call him the Leafs saviour might be a little much, but then again, things definitely changed once he got into the lineup. Toronto’s lineup finally had one of the game’s elite, game-breaking players. His presence on the ice drew the attention of the opposing team’s top defenders, which in turn, freed up some time and space for Toronto’s other forwards. Toronto showed some jump in their stride and began the Phil Kessel era 2-0-1, essentially doubling their total number of points for this season. If I recall correctly, Brian Burke was officially labeled a genius for the Kessel trade around this time, although this remains to be seen.
Toronto began another cold streak as the Kessel buzz wore off. Their next eight games netted them only 5 points, which was equal to the number of regulation losses they endured in that same time. Consequently, they fell further away from that elusive playoff spot that Burke said they’d challenge for. Many of these losses featured extremely questionable goaltending from the duo of Jonas Gustavsson and Vesa Toskala. Then something happened – yes, another OT loss. This loss was against the New York Islanders., but really, Toronto deserved to win the game. They outshot the Islanders 61-21 and if not for the brilliance of Dwayne Roloson, probably could’ve won the game by 10 goals. This loss seemed to spark something in Toronto. It was almost like the forwards suddenly realized what they needed to do to score goals and the goaltenders rapidly learned how to stop pucks.
That brings us to Toronto’s latest 10 games, where they’ve gone 7-3 and have restored their fans faith that yes, Toronto are not quite as bad as we thought they were. They were scoring more goals than they were allowing and for the first time all season, were getting some timely goaltending from both goalies. The Leafs moved up to 28th in the NHL in this time.
All of this begs the question, where does Toronto stand now? Well, 32 games into the season, they’re tied for 13th place in the Eastern Conference with Philadelphia (Flyers have 2 games in hand), but only 4 points out of 8th place. That’s the good news. The bad news is that there are 5 teams between Toronto and 8th place Montreal. You get the sense that for the Maple Leafs to leap-frog all of these teams, they’re going to have to win 70% of their remaining games this season. They also need to find a way to win at home – they have the second lowest number of home wins in the league (5 – only Florida has less with 4), as well as the second lowest point total at home. Not good.
The main problems the Leafs need to avoid are the prolonged scoring droughts and losing streaks that have plagued them so far this year. They have this strange affinity to go down by a couple of goals early in the game and they seem to wait until the last 10 minutes of a game before they wake up and attempt to equalize the game. Sometimes this works, but most of the time it doesn’t.
With so many teams ahead of them, I’d be quite surprised to see the Leafs wind up in 7th or 8th place come April, let-alone the 4th place finish I heard talk of earlier this week. Let’s be honest, Toronto are not a 4th place team. They’re not anywhere close to the standard of teams like Washington, Pittsburgh or New Jersey and it’s just foolish to think that they are. I’m not even convinced they’re an 8th place team, especially when I look at the standings and see teams like the Rangers, Lightning and Flyers all ahead of them, none of these three teams are currently in the top eight in the Eastern Conference. I don’t believe the Leafs couldn’t beat any one of those three teams in a best-of-7 series either.
At the end of the season, Toronto are very likely to finish in that same 11th or 12th place spot that they’ve hovered around for the past few years. Toronto are a team on the rise, there’s no doubt about that, but they’ve got a lot of work to do to become a legitimate playoff contender. Winning 7 of 10 games doesn’t make you a 4th place team or an 8th place team. The harsh reality is that Toronto are exactly where we expected them to be, and perhaps more importantly, they are going to stay there for the balance of the year.
Your Reporter in the Field,
Fantana
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Posted in NHL Commentary
Tags: Brian Burke Dwayne Roloson Hockey Jonas Gustavsson Luke Schenn Mike Komisarek New York Islanders NHL Phil Kessel StayClassy.net Toronto Maple Leafs Vesa Toskala