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Burgundy’s 2nd round NHL playoff predictions

April 29th, 2010

Stayclassy.net's NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs

With no real break between rounds, tonight marks the beginning of the Stanley Cup Conference Semi-Finals! The 1st round was a blast and featured the elimination of the top 3 seeded teams in the Eastern Conference. The way the Washington Capitals were eliminated was surprising to many, while the defeats of the Buffalo Sabres and New Jersey Devils was predicted by a number of people. The Western Conference saw some interesting developments – the Phoenix Coyotes and Los Angeles Kings gave the Red Wings and Canucks a few scares but ultimately couldn’t hold on. And oh yeah, the San Jose Sharks are through to the next round, no thanks to Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau.

For those of you wondering, I went 5 for 8 in my 1st round predictions. Here are my 2nd round predictions:

Pittsburgh Penguins (4) vs Montreal Canadiens (8)
The Montreal Canadiens shocked the entire hockey world with their amazing series come-back against the Washington Capitals. I don’t care what the truest of Habs fans say: no one saw them coming back after going down 3-1. Having said that, and as well as Jaroslav Halak has played, there’s no way the Pittsburgh Penguins will fall victim to the Canadiens the way the Capitals did. The Penguins are proven winners and have Russian stars that actually know how to show up in the post-season. Sidney Crosby is on another level in this year’s Playoffs and I don’t think the Hal Gill-Josh Gorges tandem will be able to contain him, despite their tremendous play so far. Pittsburgh will figure out within minutes of the first game how to not shoot directly at the two or three Habs defencemen who are trying to block shots…
Verdict: Pittsburgh in 6 games.

Boston Bruins (6) vs Philadelphia Flyers (7)
I’m not sure how many of us figured we’d see the Boston Bruins playing the Philadelphia Flyers in the 2nd round of the Playoffs, but this should be an interesting series. I really liked how Tuukka Rask played in the 1st round and I felt like the Bruins got stronger as their series with Buffalo went on. Milan Lucic seemed to wake up towards the end of the series and key players like Michael Ryder, Miroslav Satan and Mark Recchi stepped up in the big moments of each game. The highly anticipated return of Marc Savard should provide the Bruins with a nice emotional boost and perhaps a bit of additional scoring. Looking at the Flyers, although they are rested, they will be without the services of three very valuable players: Simon Gagne, Jeff Carter and Ian Laperriere. I’m not convinced Brian Boucher is for real, nor do I believe he can outplay Rask. It’s a shame we can’t see each game of this series played at Fenway Park… or can we? No, nevermind. We can’t.
Verdict: Boston in 6 games.

San Jose Sharks (1) vs Detroit Red Wings (5)
The San Jose Sharks are now at the critical point of their season. Let’s be honest: the 1st round was a formality. While the Colorado Avalanche gave them a quick scare, it was a foregone conclusion the Sharks would/should easily win that round. For the most part, the Avalanche were badly outplayed. Evgeni Nabokov played very well too – something we can’t say has always been the case in the post-season for the Sharks. Devin Setoguchi and Joe Pavelski really elevated their play in the 1st round, and yet again, Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau continue to fight the Playoff pressure. Meanwhile, the Detroit Red Wings enjoyed a scare of their own from the Phoenix Coyotes. Detroit’s leaders got stronger as the series wore on and stepped it up when it mattered most. I really liked Jimmy Howard’s play and attitude (for the most part) against the Coyotes too. My gut feeling lies with the experience of the Wings and I’m still not sold San Jose are the real deal. Still.
Verdict: Detroit in 6 games.

Chicago Blackhawks (2) vs Vancouver Canucks (3)
This is easily the best series of the 2nd round. A rematch from last year’s Conference Semi-Finals, with a slight reversal. Last year, I’d say the Chicago Blackhawks were the stronger team. This year, I’d have to say the Vancouver Canucks are the stronger team. I believe the Canucks may have the most complete forward roster of any team in the Playoffs. All the lines are firing well and appear to be healthy. While the Blackhawks offense is more lethal and battle-tested than the young Los Angeles Kings, I still give the advantage to the Canucks. Both team’s have some injuries on defence, but I think this is a series that will see Roberto Luongo will steal a game or two for Vancouver. And of course, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention how much I’m looking forward to Byfuglien & Luongo’s battle royale rematch. I can’t wait for this series to start!
Verdict: Vancouver in 7 games.

There you have it. These are my 2nd round predictions. What are your predictions?

Stay classy, NHL Conference Semi-Finals.

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Olympic concern?

January 19th, 2010

In 2006, the top 4 Western Conference teams all lost in the first round of the playoffs. Of course, 2006 was the last time NHL players took 2 weeks off to play in the Winter Olympics in Turin. Also, 2006 was the last time the Edmonton Oilers made the playoffs… and went to the Stanley Cup finals as one of the biggest underdogs in recent memory.

With the 2010 Vancouver Olympics less than 2 months away, NHL GM’s might be wondering what kind of effects the games will have on their star players and their chances to compete for the Stanley Cup. The potential for burnouts, demotivation, and injuries is very real. And any of those scenarios could have a crippling effect on the top 4 Western teams (as well as other powerhouse Eastern Conference teams like the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins).

At the time of writing this article, the top 4 Western Conference teams are the Blackhawks, Sharks, Avalanche, and Predators. Here’s a closer look at the players each team have participating at the Olympics:

  • Chicago Blackhawks – Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Marian Hossa, Tomas Kopecky
  • San Jose Sharks – Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley, Patrick Marleau, Joe Pavelski, Dan Boyle, Evgeni Nabokov, Doug Murray
  • Colorado Avalanche – Kyle Quincey, Paul Statsny, Jonas Holos, Ruslan Salei, Peter Budaj
  • Nashville Predators – Shea Weber, Ryan Suter,  Martin Erat, Patric Hornqvist, Marcel Goc, Alexander Sulzer

It makes you wonder if a Western Conference playoff team with less Olympic-bound players will squeak through each series like the Oilers did in 2006. Perhaps a team like the Calgary Flames (who only have 3 players going – Jarome Iginla, Olli Jokinen, and Miikka Kiprusoff), or even the Phoenix Coyotes (who also have 3 players going – Zbynek Michalek, Sami Lepisto, and Ilya Bryzgalov) could have a better odds in the 2010 Playoffs because of this…

I’m not saying this will or won’t happen. It’s purely speculation. And I’m not suggesting that was the only reason the 2006 Oilers got all the way to the Stanley Cup finals, but it could be a partial explanation why the top 4 Western teams were defeated by lower seeded teams that year. If anything, this probably blurs the line that much more between the top and lower seeds in the West.

With the Western Conference being as tight as it is, the same questions can be asked about Detroit, Los Angeles, and Vancouver. These teams are sending a number of players to the Olympics as well.

While fans can’t wait for the Olympics hockey to get started, I’m sure GM’s across the league are dreading it. Or perhaps they are dreading the impact following the games. At any rate, it will be fascinating to see the effects these Olympics will have on these legitimate Western Conference powerhouse teams. And for a team like Chicago who’s Cup window is small to start with, that’s just another hurdle to climb through in order to meet expectations.

Stay classy, Olympic Western Conference stars.

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Canada’s Olympic team… Finally.

December 30th, 2009

As the title says, Canada announced their men’s hockey Olympic team, finally.

Steve Yzerman and Mike Babcock are classy men.

While a country like Canada will always have more amazing players than available positions, I’m pretty happy with the final roster. Many can and will say ‘he should have taken him over him’, but I feel this is a pretty solid set of players. That can’t be improved that much.

I’m also pretty happy that the television coverage has ended – TSN can make a half hour special on anything, so I’ve come to learn this holiday season. Anyways, here’s the final roster, barring any unforeseen injuries.

Goalies
Martin Brodeur, Roberto Luongo, Marc-Andre Fleury

Defencemen
Dan Boyle, Chris Pronger (assistant captain),
Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook
Scott Niedermayer (captain), Drew Doughty
Shea Weber

Forwards
Rick Nash, Sidney Crosby (assistant captain), Jarome Iginla,
Brenden Morrow, Mike Richards, Patrice Bergeron
Corey Perry, Ryan Getzlaf, Eric Staal
Patrick Marleau, Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley
Jonathan Toews

Of course, there will be debate as to who should of made the team and didn’t. Below is a list of notable omissions

Mike Green, Mike Fisher, Shane Doan, Marc Savard, Jeff Carter, Jay Bouwmeester, Stephane Robidas, Vincent Lecavalier, Dion Phaneuf, Patrick Sharp.

Anyone else I’m missing? What are your thoughts on Team Canada? Can Canada capture gold with this squad?

Stay classy, Steve Yzerman and Team Canada.

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Mike Cammalleri on Team Canada, are you kidding me?

December 15th, 2009

For the record, I don’t normally do this. I don’t normally read some article by some writer I’ve never heard of and immediately say “I’ve got to write a well worded response that addresses the original article in a timely manner”. Or something like that.

For one thing, I wouldn’t call my “writing” well worded. And this response is anything but well timed considering Jack Todd’s original article – the one that got me fired up – was published on Saturday.

But I don’t really care. Chalk it up to me making a point of how much I disagree with Todd’s views. Or how busy I am. But first, allow me to be cordial about this.

Readers, meet Jack Todd. Jack is a writer for the Canwest News Service. (Yeah, I don’t know what that means either). Jack writes for the National Post and Montreal Gazette, among other publications. Jack, meet the Classiest readers you’ll ever meet. Or hear about meeting. You get the point.

This past Saturday, Jack wrote a column suggesting Montreal Canadiens forward Mike Cammalleri should be a lock for Team Canada’s Olympic hockey team. Yes, you read that correctly. Jack feels Cammalleri’s name belongs with Canadian superstars like Sidney Crosby, Jarome Iginla, and countless others.

Jack even goes as far as hinting Cammalleri deserves a spot on the Canadian Olympic team more than Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley (purely because of his summer antics), and Rick Nash. I’m not even making this up.

As of writing this, Mike Cammalleri has 18 goals this season, good for 6th in the NHL. Don’t get me wrong – that’s impressive. But here’s the deal: For Cammalleri to play on this team and to be effective, you’d have to give him top 6 minutes. That’s what Cammalleri has received in recent years and done well with the Kings, Flames, and now the Canadiens. Cammalleri’s size and style doesn’t support a checking line role either. So in saying that, can anyone justify giving Cammalleri top 6 minutes with better and more effective players?

If Cammalleri is on the team, who do you cut? Whoever it is, that’s an awfully big risk.

Cammalleri has some international experience (a total of 17 World Championship games and 14 World Junior games), but he’s appeared in only 6 NHL playoff games in his career. Cammalleri has 10 points in those 17 World Championship games – hardly top 6 numbers. Compare that to the number’s we’ve seen Rick Nash or Dany Heatley put up and I think you have a definitive reason not to select Cammalleri.

Some may argue Steve Yzerman and co should be taking the players who are playing the best hockey right now (ie. not guys like Jeff Carter). That’s fair to say – but I can find other players playing as well or better than Cammalleri who have better international and playoff resumes. Point trumped, again.

Simply put, there’s no room for Cammalleri on this team. He’s a great player who’s consistently improved year over year, but I don’t think he’s good enough for Team Canada in 2010. If Canada could build 2 Olympic teams, then I’d agree with Jack Todd. But since the top 6 forwards need to be the best of the best, there’s no way Cammalleri can be considered in that elite group. The depth Canada has is far too deep. Maybe in 2014, Mike.

Stay classy, Mike Cammalleri… and Jack Todd.

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Ottawa Senators game day predictions (Sens/Sharks)

December 1st, 2009

Apparently some hockey player in California is about to play his old team tonight. I’m pretty sure it’s not Wayne Gretzky, although I’m not positive. I think (**think**) it’s some dude named Dany Heatley. I had a hard time remembering his name for a moment or two (thanks Wikipedia). But seriously folks: Easiest. Sports story. Ever. It’s almost like a day off for reporters and bloggers everywhere. Thanks Dany!

As you probably know, we’re really getting into this whole game day predictions thing for the Ottawa Senators. We’re hoping James Gordon at the Ottawa Citizen likes our predictions. Especially considering he hasn’t asked the Classiest bloggers on the internet for their predictions at all this season.

(By the way, we’re just having fun with James. We mean no ill will… we are classy people you know…)

Alright. Here we go. Sens and Sharks. Here’s our predictions - do you agree? Let us know below.

Ottawa Senators vs San Jose Sharks (and Dany Heatley) – 10:30pm EST; Sportsnet East, CSN California

Burgundy: San Jose- 4, Ottawa- 2; First of all, the media is focusing on the wrong story for tonight’s game. This is the big return for Milan Michalek and Jonathan Cheechoo! I predict Cheech to score against his former team tonight. Kidding, obviously. But I think Michalek will score a goal. And yes, I think Heatley will score too. But I predict Ottawa to be so focused on shutting Heatley down that they’ll forget about 4th highest goal scorer in the NHL, Patrick Marleau.

Fantana: San Jose- 6, Ottawa- 4; Ottawa are 3-4-1 on the road while San Jose are 7-1-2 at home. The Marleau-Thornton-Heatley line continues to rip it up and I’m willing to bet they do some serious damage again against the Sens. My Heatley prediction is that he’ll score 2 goals against his former team.

Tambland: Ottawa- 4, San Jose- 2; I spent a lot of time looking at this game trying to figure out what significance, if any, I could find. And then it hit me: this will be Jamie McGinn’s first game against the city where he played his junior hockey as a member of the Ottawa 67s. That said, I think the Senators will have some added motivation since the loss against Boston on Saturday. They know San Jose is going to be a tough task, so they should come out strong and win won for the gipper… as they say.

Champ: San Jose- 5, Ottawa- 3; Three Senators try and run Heatley and there’s a good chance he loses another tooth!

Mantooth: San Jose- 3, Ottawa- 1; Ottawa finally gets to see Dany Heatley since this summer’s “trade request” over a “diminished role”. Don’t expect anyone on either side to hold back anything. Its hard to argue that the Sharks are the far better team offensively, and don’t expect much to change this time around. I don’t think that Elliot stands a chance against the Marleau/Thornton/Heatley line, but who knows, we might see another upset like that Sharks/Hawks game last week.

Stay classy, Ottawa Senators… ummm… and Dany Heatley.

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This Town is a break-you-town and bring-you-down-town

October 15th, 2009

You know who is probably more excited that there’s a game tonight than I am: the Ottawa Senators themselves.

Not to quote Frank Sinatra too much, but as he once sang in his classic song:

This town is a lonely town
Not the only town like-a this town
This town is a make-you town
Or a break-you-town and bring-you-down town

This town is a quiet town
Or a riot town like this town
This town is a love-you town
And a shove-you-down and push-you-’round town

This town is an all-right town
For an uptight town like-a this town
This town, it’s a use-you town
An abuse-you town until-you’re-down town

There, I got that out of my system. But in all seriousness, that’s what Ottawa is. You’d almost think that Frank was singing about Ottawa and the woes of being a hockey player here when he belted out those lyrics.

The Senators lost on Monday (not sure if everyone in town knows that yet), and they’ve had three days off to talk about everything that went wrong when they faced the Stanley Cup Champions who just happen to remain undefeated on the road and have beat some very good teams in the process. But hey, that doesn’t matter right?

I’ve taken a look at the schedule though, and I’ve got some healthy advice for the Sens on what games should be designated must-wins. That way we don’t need to talk about the sky falling anymore.

Saturday October 17- Ottawa Senators @ Montreal Canadiens

- 5 days off in between games. And it’s Montreal. If we don’t win this one, the media will be calling for Bryan Murray to bring in more players of Ryan Shannon’s stature, and bumping up Erik Karlsson to play more than 30 minutes a game. As well, Pascal Leclaire will be asked to smoke as many cigarettes as possible, while putting his fist through a wall

Saturday October 24- Ottawa Senators vs. Boston Bruins

- Another 4 days off in between games, but if Ottawa loses this one, they’ll likely be subject to several editorials suggesting that Ottawa could use a player of Zdeno Chara’s stature. Cue the fans calling for Jared Cowen to make the trip from Spokane immediately.

Tuesday December 1- Ottawa Senators @ San Jose Sharks

- There’s not a lot of time in between games here, but if Ottawa loses this game, expect the Jason Spezza/Joe Thornton comparisons to resonate across the continent. Strangely, nothing will be mentioned about Dany Heatley.

Sunday February 14- Ottawa Senators @ New York Islanders

- The last game before the Olympics and the Ottawa Senators have to play the New York Islanders. I’ll be watching the Olympics for the next two weeks, but I don’t want to hear a word about how Ottawa couldn’t close it against the Islanders.

Tuesday March 9- Ottawa Senators @ Edmonton Oilers

- It’s time for Ottawa to march into Rexall Place, and show Penner, Smid, and Cogliano what they’ve been missing and that they should have pressed Dany Heatley harder to waive his no-trade clause. Also, if they lose this one, expect to hear why Pat Quinn should have been named head coach here in Ottawa after hugging the Eugene Melnyk at the World Juniors last January.

Tuesday March 23- Ottawa Senators vs. Philadelphia Flyers

- 3 days off in between games here, but if Ottawa loses this one, I expect that the fans will be calling for Bryan Murray to trade for this Ray Emery character that Philadelphia just pulled out of the KHL. He’s probably pretty affordable, no?

Saturday April 10- Ottawa Senators vs. Buffalo Sabres

- Other than the fact that this could make or break the playoff standings in the Eastern Conference, nobody wants to lose their last game of the season, and listen to all the doubters talking about why Ottawa doesn’t stand a chance in the first round.

–

So there you have if folks. The must-win games for Ottawa. I will say this though; Ottawa tends to play better when people expect them to lose. I’m not sure if it’s because they’re playing above expectations, or if they actually play better with a chip on their shoulder. So maybe they shouldn’t listen to me at all.

Stay classy, knee-jerk Ottawa fans.

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Debunking the Top-50

September 22nd, 2009

Mike Brophy over at Sportsnet just released his Top-50 players for the upcoming season. #1, 2, and 3 belong to Sidney Crosby, Alex Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin, respectively. But it is his points about one former Ottawa Senator and two current Senators that beg some questions.

16. Dany Heatley- His popularity took a massive hit after he insisted the Ottawa Senators trade him, but Heatley remains one of the NHL’s most potent goal scorers and he should return to form skating on a line with Joe Thornton in San Jose. Heatley should be in contention for the Rocket Richard Trophy.

While I don’t disagree that Dany Heatley is a natural goal scorer, I continue to question whether he can handle the aggressive, physical play of the Pacific Division. We all saw how he folded against Anaheim in the Finals, and I doubt he can hold up to that kind of grinding play.

The expectation that he will be in contention for the Rocket Richard Trophy also makes me wonder. Has Heatley ever really been in contention for that? I know he’s consistently been amongst the league’s highest goal scorers, but his numbers have dropped off, even before last season. I bet Ilya Kovalchuk still takes that award.

23. Daniel Alfredsson- With the foundation of the team crumbling around him, Alfredsson remains the voice of reason in Ottawa and a damn fine two-way star as well.

Why do the Toronto media continue to suggest that the foundation of this team is crumbling. They lost one player who didn’t want to be there anymore. If that was our foundation, then we had a problem. At least Brophy acknowledges that Alfredsson continues to remain a voice of reason and a star, but why did he have to preface that statement with such dire circumstances. Alfredsson’s only downfall will be his age, not the team around him.

43. Jason Spezza- Despite playing six more games last season than he did the year before, Spezza finished with 19 fewer points and now he won’t have sharp-shooter Dany Heatley skating on his line. One can only hope Jonathan Cheechoo rediscovers his scoring touch.

At least Spezza made this list. I was getting worried as I scrolled down. But to suggest that Spezza’s numbers will fall off without Heatley not truly examining the additions to Ottawa. Not only does he still have Alfredsson (the two actually combined for more points than Heatley and Spezza ever did), but Michalek, Kovalev and Cheechoo can all bury the puck. Brophy’s analysis here doesn’t given enough credit to a much deeper forward line-up in Ottawa.

–

I give Brophy credit here for sticking his neck out there and he also acknowledges that he wants comments and discussion on his picks. But I’m getting a little tired of the suggestion that the loss of Heatley will be enough cause for a grieving period. If Ottawa falters out of the gate, the soapboxes in Toronto will be covered in analysts screaming that Bryan Murray lost that trade and that the foundation of this team is crumbling. Meanwhile, in reality (or outside of Toronto), this foundation looks more solid than ever.

Hindsight is always 20/20, so I’m sure #23 and #43 will be up a little higher on that list when the season is over.

Stay classy, Mike Brophy’s pre-season Top-50. Make room for the Senators.

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Will Steve Yzerman make the hard decisions for Team Canada?

July 29th, 2009

I’m not sure if this is news or not, but earlier this week, it was noted that there would be no long shots for the mens Canadian Olympic hockey team, when the games hit Vancouver in 2010.

Translation: if you weren’t asked to the 46-man orientation camp later this summer, you have better shot at getting on Megan Fox than you do getting on Team Canada.

OK – This isn’t really news.  And I guess its a 45-man roster, now that Joe Sakic has announced his retirement.  And not that it helps much – deep down, I think everyone knows their favorite players not on that list stand little chance of making the squad, but that doesn’t mean we have to like it.

I’m disappointed.  I’m tired of seeing “seniority placements” in Canadian Olympic teams.  That was the biggest problem with the 2006 Torino team.  Part of the reason Yzerman was brought in to build this hockey team was to add a fresh feel with younger talent who would make the team better for that tournament and that tournament alone.  I always thought one of Yzermans’s underlying mandates was to pick the best team without worrying who’d be offended.  As a proud Canadian, I want Canada to win and I don’t care who has to be on and off the team for that to happen.

So if Robyn Regehr has a slow start to the 2009-2010 NHL season, should he really be on the team?  Should he really take the place of Shea Weber, Duncan Keith or Brent Seabrook even if he has a strong start to the year?  It’s time for change and it’s not like any of the three guys I just mentioned lack international hockey experience.

There will always be guys that are locks to make the team.  But that should be because they have consistently shown they can play at world class levels throughout their careers.  So when I see names like Ryan Smyth and Joe Thornton on the orientation roster, I have to wonder why.  They are great players that I’d love to see on my team any day – but honestly, are they the best players for Team Canada come February 2010?

I’d rather see some of these guys replaced with younger and faster upcoming talent.  These are the guys I’d consider seniority placements.  First thing’s first: replace Smyth with Brendan Morrow – an absolute must if Morrow is healthy.  Next, there are atleast 4 centerman that are more effective than Joe Thornton (Vinny Lecavalier, Ryan Getzlaf, Eric Staal,  Mike Richards) and I’m assuming the younger guys won’t make the squad and Sidney Crosby will be playing left wing.  And Marc Savard and Jason Spezza are considered ‘long shots’ since being omitted from Yzerman’s orientation list.

As far as defence goes,  Regehr, Chris Pronger and Dion Phaneuf shouldn’t make the team.  Not when you have players like Weber, Scott Neidermayer, Dan Boyle, Duncan Keith, Brent Burns, Jay Bouwmeester and Drew Doughty who right now, are stronger hockey players for the kind of up-tempo/fast moving style Canada wants to play.

For goaltenders, despite Martin Brodeur being the all time most winning goalie in the NHL ever, I’d like to see Roberto Luongo named as the started.  Despite his career achievements, Brodeur’s season last year wasn’t good and ended horribly in the Devils disasterous collapse against the Carolina Hurricanes in the first round of the playoffs.  I still think Marc-Andre Fleury should  be the third goaltender on the roster.

Please, Steve Yzerman, don’t just pick the team based on who’s been on it before.  Let’s see the very best of what Canada can offer at that very moment.  Not the best of what once was.

Stay classy, Team Canada.

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What would you do, part 2?

May 5th, 2009

 

Time for another game of “The Grass Ain’t Always Greener.”
 
I think there is a propensity of casual hockey fans (certainly not the ones reading this blog) to pull the trigger on deals too often. In many cases, a straight one-for-one trade rarely works out, nor marks any significant improvement. I can only think of a few cases where these have worked (Heatley for Hossa), and even those can be debated. To see how this game works, check out our blog on a Thornton for Spezza trade.
 
I present to you : Filip Kuba vs. Mattias Ohlund
 
Filip Kuba: 6’5, 226 lbs
Mattias Ohlund: 6’3, 230 lbs
 
Ohlund is a bit bigger weight wise, but Kuba is taller. Both should play the body more. 
 
Filip Kuba: 32 years old, drafted in 1995
Mattias Ohlund: 32 years old, drafted in 1994
 
This one is a wash age-wise. Kuba was drafted a year later than Ohlund and played his first NHL career game a year later as well. Ohlund decided to hold out for three seasons before signing, so he loses what we will call Alexei Yashin points here. But Ohlund does have more NHL experience. 
 
Kuba: Drafted 8th round, 192nd overall.
Ohlund: Drafted 1st round, 13th overall.
 
You have to give this one to Ohlund, seeing as he was the higher pick. But history has shown us that draft position doesn’t mean a thing once the puck has dropped (take, oh I don’t know, Alexandre Daigle and Daniel Alfredsson as an example).
 
Kuba’s first full NHL season: 2000-01 season- 75 GP, 9 goals, 21 assists, 30 points
Ohlunds’ first full NHL season: 1997-98 season- 77 GP, 7 goals, 23 assists, 30 points
 
I’m going to go with Kuba here, as this first season was played with the Minnesota Wild; a rather defensive minded team. The points total may be the same, but Kuba also did it in two fewer games. It’s marginal numbers, but stats don’t lie.
 
 
Kuba’s post lockout numbers: 292 GP, 30 goals, 103 assists, 133 points
Ohlund’s post lockout numbers: 290 GP, 39 goals, 74 assists, 113 points
 
Again, the numbers are close, but I have to again give this to Kuba. He has two more games at hand, but 20 points more than Ohlund. 
 
Kuba’s Playoff numbers: 24 GP, 4 goals, 9 assists, 13 points
Ohlund’s Playoff numbers: 42 GP, 8 goals, 17 assists, 25 points
 
Kuba averages half a point per game. Ohlund averages a bit more. Ohlund’s playoff experience may win him out here, but point totals remain consistent. Call it a slight victory for Ohlund. But expect Kuba to put up some numbers in the playoffs next year. Remember, his playoff experience was in Minnesota- a notorious defensive system- and Tampa, where Dan Boyle took most of the defensive points.
 
Kuba’s contract: 3 year deal, $3 million per season
Ohlund’s contract: Pending UFA. Made $3.5 million per season
 
This one goes to Kuba. That half a million is a fourth liner now, and knowing the way the free agent market has worked lately, Ohlund is bound to be overpaid this summer.
 
So again, who would you do? Save the money and stick with Kuba. You may get more points out of it anyway.

Time for another game of “The Grass Ain’t Always Greener.”

I think there is a propensity of casual hockey fans (certainly not the ones reading this blog) to pull the trigger on deals too often.  In many cases, a straight one-for-one trade rarely works out, nor marks any significant improvement.  I can only think of a few cases where these have worked (Dany Heatley for Marian Hossa), and even those can be debated.  To see how this game works, check out our blog on a Thornton for Spezza trade.

 

I present to you:  Filip Kuba vs. Mattias Ohlund

 

Filip Kuba: 6’5, 226 lbs

Mattias Ohlund: 6’3, 230 lbs

 

Ohlund is a bit bigger weight wise, but Kuba is taller.  Both should play the body more. 

 

Filip Kuba: 32 years old, drafted in 1995

Mattias Ohlund: 32 years old, drafted in 1994

This one is a wash age-wise.  Kuba was drafted a year later than Ohlund and played his first NHL career game a year later as well. Ohlund decided to hold out for three seasons before signing, so he loses what we will call Alexei Yashin points here. But Ohlund does have more NHL experience. 

 

Kuba: Drafted 8th round, 192nd overall.

Ohlund: Drafted 1st round, 13th overall.

You have to give this one to Ohlund, seeing as he was the higher pick.  But history has shown us that draft position doesn’t mean a thing once the puck has dropped (take, oh I don’t know, Alexandre Daigle and Daniel Alfredsson as an example).

 

Kuba’s first full NHL season: 2000-01 season- 75 GP, 9 goals, 21 assists, 30 points

Ohlunds’ first full NHL season: 1997-98 season- 77 GP, 7 goals, 23 assists, 30 points

I’m going to go with Kuba here, as this first season was played with the Minnesota Wild; a rather defensive minded team.  The points total may be the same, but Kuba also did it in two fewer games.  It’s marginal numbers, but stats don’t lie.

 

Kuba’s post lockout numbers: 292 GP, 30 goals, 103 assists, 133 points

Ohlund’s post lockout numbers: 290 GP, 39 goals, 74 assists, 113 points

Again, the numbers are close, but I have to again give this to Kuba.  He has two more games at hand, but 20 points more than Ohlund. 

 

Kuba’s Playoff numbers: 24 GP, 4 goals, 9 assists, 13 points

Ohlund’s Playoff numbers: 42 GP, 8 goals, 17 assists, 25 points

Kuba averages half a point per game.  Ohlund averages a bit more.  Ohlund’s playoff experience may win him out here, but point totals remain consistent.  Call it a slight victory for Ohlund.  But expect Kuba to put up some numbers in the playoffs next year.  Remember, his playoff experience was in Minnesota- a notorious defensive system- and Tampa, where Dan Boyle took most of the defensive points.

 

Kuba’s contract: 3 year deal, $3 million per season

Ohlund’s contract: Pending UFA. Made $3.5 million per season

This one goes to Kuba.  That half a million is a fourth liner now, and knowing the way the free agent market has worked lately, Ohlund is bound to be overpaid this summer.

 

So again, who would you do?  Save the money and stick with Kuba.  You may get more points out of it anyway.

 

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The 1st round post mortem

April 30th, 2009

Now that the 1st round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is complete, 8 teams moved on to the Conference Semi-Finals while 8 teams cleaned out their locker rooms and began shaving their playoff beards.  For the losing teams, the questions over what went wrong, who under-achieved and who will be re-signed, traded or let go will start.   

Western Conference
 

Where did Joe Thornton go?

Where did Joe Thornton go?

San Jose Sharks – After letting Ron Wilson go last summer and seeing another early playoff exit this year, it’s clear that coaching isn’t the problem in San Jose.  Todd McLellen will be back next year and that’s probably the only safe bet with this team.  San Jose’s core group of players didn’t show up against the Anaheim Ducks and that’s why they lost.  Despite the no-trade clause, I think Patrick Marleau may be moved this summer.  With one year and $6.3 Million on his contract, he’s pricey but can be afforded and I could see a team like the Los Angeles Kings being interested.  I also wonder about Joe Thornton… it really makes you wonder if Boston were wrong to have traded him several years ago.  Maybe they were right all along… weird!  Evgeni Nabokov didn’t elevate his game in the playoffs either but I suspect the Sharks will retain him because he’d be too hard to replace. Milan Michalek is another guy that was non-existent against the Ducks and could be on the trading block.  I expect he will be back next year but with $20 Million owing over the next 5 years, he’ll be hard to move.  Finally, I think San Jose will re-sign Travis Moen and let Rob Blake go.  
 

Columbus Blue Jackets – Columbus have a bright future and GM Scott Howson has done a great job in his two years with the Blue Jackets.  The main challenge this summer will insulating Rick Nash and finding a way to re-sign him to a long-term contract, as his current deal expires at the end of next season (Shut up Leafs fans).  Columbus could use another top 4 defenseman as I’m not sure if Christian Backman will be re-signed – he could be had but for less than the $3.4 Million he earned this season.  With Voracek, Brassard, Filatov, Umberger, Vermette and Nash in their top 6, this team will be fast and dynamic next year.  I’m excited to see these guys in October. 

 

Calgary Flames – There’s no question that Calgary’s lineup was decimated with injuries but Flames fans won’t tolerate another early exit and neither will their ownership.  Expect a few big changes this summer.  I think Calgary would like to re-sign Mike Cammalleri, but their problem is that they’ve already got $47 Million committed to next season.  Basically, to keep Cammalleri, they’ll have to pass on re-signing Rhett Warrener and Jordan Leopold, as Cammalleri will likely command $6 Million per season.  Or they’ll have to trade Olli Jokinen to free up some cap space but I don’t see that happening.  I doubt the Flames will re-sign Todd Bertuzzi or Adrian Aucoin but I do however believe David Moss and Jamie Lundmark will be retained. 

 

St. Louis Blues – St. Louis ripped it up in the 2nd half of the year and surprised many with a 6th place finish in the ultra-tough Western Conference.  Remember that Paul Kariya, Eric Brewer and Erik Johnson will all be healthy next season and that’s a big bonus for a young Blues team.  Keith Tkachuk is UFA but I think he’ll re-sign with St. Louis for around $2 Million next year.  Dan Hinote and Jay McClement should also be straight-forward re-signings.  The only notable change for St. Louis is that I don’t see Manny Legace coming back next year.  Look for the Blues to promote from within, with guys like Alex Pietrangelo, Patrik Berglund, Ben Bishop/Marek Shwartz and Johnson to take on bigger roles next season. 
 

Eastern Conference

 

Philadelphia Flyers – Paul Holmgren was lauded as a genius for turning around the Philadelphia Flyers franchise in 2007.  Well, turns out he didn’t plan that far ahead after all.  The Flyers have $53 Million on their payroll for next year, so they won’t be participating in the UFA sweepstakes this summer.  So no, they cannot afford Jay Bouwmeester, nor will they won’t be able to retain impending UFA’s Mike Knuble and Andrew Alberts.  James van Riemsdyk will be a top 6 forward, so that makes Joffrey Lupul expendable.  Good luck moving that contract though.  I think the Flyers will try to move Daniel Briere (hello, Montreal), Lupul and possibly Simon Gagne this summer to clear cap space because, among other things, they have no goaltenders signed for next season.  I think Philly will re-sign Biron to a similar contract as this year and will let Antero Niittymaki walk.  Any teams trading with the Flyers can expect some really good deals!

 

New York Rangers – John Tortorella will be back as coach next year, so the circus with him and Sean Avery will continue.  Oh boy!  With $42 Million committed to next season already, some tough decisions will need to be made this summer in New York. I don’t see Zherdev or Antropov coming back, especially with Matt Gilroy joining the fold on a one-way contract next season.  Paul Mara and Derek Morris are also doubtful to return.  I think it’s clear the Rangers need to get some of their “character” players such as Brandon Dubinsky, Blair Betts and Ryan Callahan re-signed, as they were the most consistent players all year for the Blue-shirts.  They will command significant raises that will bite into New York’s available cap space.  The rest of the spare cash will go towards UFA defenseman that are better than Wade Redden.

 

Montreal Canadians – It’s been well documented that Montreal have a total of 13 UFA’s  and 6 RFA’s this summer.  Wow.  Marc Denis, Robert Lang and Alexei Kovalev are very doubtful to return and depending on salary demands, Francis Bouillon, Alex Tanguay and Saku Koivu may not return either.  For Koivu’s sake, I hope he finds a team/city that actually deserves him – I’ve heard rumours of Koivu going to Minnesota to play with his brother, but I’m not sold on that.  There are also question marks surrounding the Kostitsyn brothers, though I suspect they will return to the Habs next year.  The only players I can see the Canadians bringing back for sure next year are Mike Komisarek, Patrice Brisebois (at a reduced salary), Guillaume Latendresse and Chris Higgins.  Montreal do have some promising youth ready to step into a regular role with the team, including Max Pacioretty, Matt D’Agostini, and Ryan O’Byrne, among others, and that’s about the only good news for Habs fans.  It’s going to be a long season next year and making the playoffs is all but guaranteed.

 

New Jersey Devils – New Jersey have 9 UFA’s this summer, including John Madden, Brian Gionta, Bobby Holik, Brendan Shanahan, Scott Clemmenson, Niclas Havelid and Johnny Oduya.  Needless to say, it could be a very different looking Devils team that hits the ice in October.  I believe the Devils will re-sign Oduya and Madden for sure, while Holik and Shanahan could be kept, assuming they aren’t seeking too much coin.  Brian Gionta will be tough to retain, given he’s 29 years old and earned $4 Million this past season.  I also think Clemmenson and Havelid are goners.  Travis Zajac and Andy Greene are RFA’s too, and they’ll both command big raises, expecially Zajac.

 

Your reporter in the field, 

Fantana
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