For all the last-minute hockey poolers out there who are putting the finishing touches on their season-opening rosters, this blog’s for you. Last season, any poolers who made some mid to late-round picks like Loui Eriksson (36 goals, 63 points) or Devin Setoguchi (31 goals, 61 points) got some unexpected scoring help and likely did very well in their pools as a result. These types of breakout seasons can literally make or break a hockey pool and become absolutely critical in determining bragging rights as well as some always needed boozing money.
So the question becomes, who will be this season’s Eriksson or Setoguchi? Here’s a look at my top 10 picks for breakout players of the year:
- Milan Lucic – Boston Bruins – Last Year: 72 GP, 17 G, 42 PTS
This pick probably isn’t a surprise to anyone, especially since I picked Lucic to make the Canadian Olympic squad. But after watching Lucic make a huge impact in last year’s playoffs, it’s fair to assume that his progress will continue. I also believe he’ll get a little more icetime thanks to the departure of Phil Kessel.
Stay classy, Milan Lucic
- Andy McDonald – St. Louis Blues – Last Year: 46 GP, 15 G, 44 PTS
I know Andy McDonald is 32 years old and he did score 85 points with Anaheim in 2005-2006. Having said that, this season will be more of a comeback season for Mcdonald, who’s entering his third season with St. Louis but has only played 95 games as a Blue. McDonald was a part of Team Canada’s Orientation camp earlier this summer and I think he’s going to be much healthier this year. Factor in the Blues stellar young talent up front and you’ve got a guy that could potentially score 80 points this season.
- Rich Peverley – Atlanta Thrashers – Last Year: 66 GP, 15 G, 44 PTS
Is anybody else still wondering why Nashville gave up on Peverley? He’s like that guy that everyone gives up on too early, kind of like what happened with Martin St. Louis before he got to Tampa Bay. Anyway, Peverley seemed to really fit well with Atlanta’s style of play in the second half of last year, scoring 35 points in only 39 games. Nice! He was also +12 last season with one of the worst defensive teams in the league. Peverley will be a solid mid-round pick in your fantasy draft because he’ll be surrounded with strong players such as Ilya Kovalchuk, Todd White, Bryan Little, Nik Antropov, Colby Armstrong and possibly Evander Kane. Finally, this is also a contract year for Peverley.
- Brandon Dubinsky – New York Rangers – Last Year: 82 GP, 13 G, 41 PTS
Simply put, the Rangers don’t really have a number one centre and somebody has to set up Marion Gaborik. Chris Drury is better suited to be their #2 centre and that’s where Dubinsky comes into play. If penalty minutes get you points, BD will be a great choice, as he picked up 112 PIM’s last season. And in case you really aren’t convinced on Dubinsky yet, he scored 7 game-winning goals last season, which was by far the most on the team.
Stay classy, Brandon Dubinsky
- Steven Stamkos – Tampa Bay Lightning – Last Year: 79 GP, 23 G, 49 PTS
Stamkos took a lot of heat for his slow start to his NHL career but in all fairness, it’s not easy to jump into the NHL as an 18 year old. I actually blame Barry Melrose for Stamkos’ slow start. You see, Melrose’s mullet probably blocked Stamkos’ view of the blackboard and so Stamkos probably had to figure out Tampa’s breakouts and zone-entries on his own. Tampa fans will fall in love with little Steven all over again this season.
- T.J. Oshie – St. Louis Blues – Last Year: 57 GP, 14 G, 39 PTS
T.J. Oshie is one truly exciting and talented player. He’s the leader of the young players on the Blues and he’ll be playing up front with a healthy Paul Kariya, Andy McDonald, Brad Boyes and David Backes. This pick is a slam dunk.
Stay classy, TJ Oshie
- Drew Stafford – Buffalo Sabres – Last Year: 79 GP, 20 G, 45 PTS
I’m a big fan of Drew Stafford and with every passing season, he seems to get better and better. Stafford is a fixture on the powerplay and scored 9 PP goals last season, so you know he’ll see plenty of time on the PP. He averaged over 15 minutes a game last year and didn’t look out of place at all. Keep in mind, he’s 6’2” and only 23 years old, so there’s lots of room for improvement.
- Ville Leino – Detroit Red Wings – Last Year: 13 GP, 5 G, 9 PTS
Everyone knows that Detroit took a huge hit in the off-season when they couldn’t resign Mikael Samuelsson or Marian Hossa. Then, Jiri Hudler bolts to Russia. Ouch, tough luck for Red Wings fans. The one positive that comes from this, is that it will give guys like Ville Leino a chance to play top-6 minutes. If Leino isn’t available, you may want to consider Justin Abdelkader as a back up.
- Matt D’Agostini – Montreal Canadiens – Last Year: 53 GP, 12 G, 21 PTS
When Montreal limped into the playoffs last year, they looked like an absolute trainwreck. Very few players actually looked like they cared, but I thought Matt D’Agostini played hard down the stretch. Montreal only resigned him to a one year contract for this season, so D’Agostini has no choice but to make a big impact in La Bell Province. But if you look at Montreal’s depth chart, the only RW’s that are better than him are Brian Gionta and Guillaume Latendresse and I’m not convinced that Latendresse is that much better than D’Agostini.
- Claude Giroux – Philadelphia Flyers – Last Year: 42 GP, 9 G, 27 PTS
My final pick is Philadelphia’s Claude Giroux. This kid can flat-out fly and he knows how to score. He scored over 100 points in all three of the years he played in the QMJHL and also looked really strong for the Flyers in the playoffs last year, scoring 5 points in their 6 game series with Pittsburgh.
Stay classy, Claude Giroux
Honourable Mentions: Saku Koivu (ANA), Jonathan Cheechoo (OTT), Blake Wheeler (BOS), David Bolland (CHI), and Kyle Okposo (NYI)
Did I miss anyone? Drop me a line and let me know. Otherwise, when you win your pools in May because of this supremely helpful blog, I’d happily accept any gratuities. In case you haven’t heard the rumours, the Stayclassy writers are horribly underpaid. Burgundy’s hogging all the dough and I’m running low on Sex Panther cologne…
Your reporter in the field,
Fantana
Follow Fantana on Twitter or be a fan of Stayclassy on Facebook.
Restricted Free Agency In November?
November 3rd, 2009Jonathan Toews is one of 3 Chicago Blackhawks that are RFA's this summer.
Unrestricted free agents (UFA’s) are the most hyped free agents in the NHL but are they the best free agents? Last week, we looked at unrestricted free agents in October and today, we’ll look at restricted free agents in November.
Since the lockout, things have changed and the league has become a younger league. Top draft picks used to require a few years of ‘seasoning’ because they could crack the NHL, and even then, it would take a few more years before they became impact players. Yet in today’s league, we have 18 year olds that flat-out dominate men in their 30’s. The emergence of young talent across the league makes restricted free agents (RFA) a better deal that UFA’s. Here are some of next summer’s top RFA’s:
Bobby Ryan – Anaheim Ducks
Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $765,000/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $3.5 Million/season
Fantana’s Thoughts: Bobby Ryan exploded into the NHL last season, his first full year in the league, where he scored 31 times and was a finalist for the Calder Trophy. With the likelihood of retirement looming for Teemu Selanne, Ryan becomes an even more critical component of Anaheim’s future. $3.5 Million per season might seem pretty rich for a guy who will only have 2.5 years of NHL experience under his belt, but if stretched over 4 or 5 years, could look like a steal.
Ondrej Pavelec – Atlanta Thrashers
Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $850,000/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $3 Million/season
Fantana’s Thoughts: After watching Pavelac steal the show against the Sens on Halloween (he made 50 saves!), I’m convinced he’ll be Atlanta’s future starting goalie. During the game, CBC’s Garry Galley said that Pavelac was a few years away from becoming a star goalie in the NHL but I think it’ll happen sooner than that. This year looks like his breakthrough season and keeping Pavelac around long-term could help Atlanta keep Kovalchuk in the fold too. The key in resigning Pavelac won’t so much be about money, but rather, giving him the starting goaltender position next season.
Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith – Chicago Blackhawks
Value of Toews Contract on September 1st, 2009: $850,000/season
Value of Kane’s Contract on September 1st, 2009: $875,000/season
Value of Keith’s Contract on September 1st, 2009: $1.9 Million/season
Value of All 3’s Contracts on November 1st, 2009: $4.5 Million/season
Fantana’s Thoughts: Chicago have a big problem and the clock is ticking. Three of their best players are RFA’s and they’re all due for big raises next year. Chicago’s best bet is to try and negotiate with all three together to keep the core of their team in tact. Having said that, I think it’s clear that something, rather someone or some people, have to give. Names like Patrick Sharp and Kris Versteeg come to mind. And if the Hawks are really lucky, they’ll find a team willing to take Brian Campbell, but don’t count on it.
Kyle Quincey – Colorado Avalanche
Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $550,000/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $3 Million/season
Fantana’s Thoughts: Quincey broke out last year with L.A. and looked great quarter-backing their powerplay, scoring 38 points. He’s one of the reasons why Colorado are off to such a torrid start too, scoring 8 points and being +4. Comparable salaries are Marek Zidlicky in Minnesota ($3.5 Million) and Joe Corvo ($2.75 Million), though I think Quincey is better defensively than Corvo and Zidlicky.
Josh Harding – Minnesota Wild
Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $1.1 Million/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $2.75 Million/season
Fantana’s Thoughts: Minnesota are off to a slow start and as usual, it’s their offense that’s letting them down. Well, that and all their injuries. Either way, you have to wonder how long they’re going to hold on to Josh Harding, who happens to be their best trading chip to acquire another forward. I think Harding will get $2.75 Million next season, but it won’t be in Minnesota. Like Pavelac, the most important aspect of the negotiation will be whether Harding’s a starter next year or not.
Marc Staal – New York Rangers
Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $765,000/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $3.5 Million/season
Fantana’s Thoughts: Marc Staal is probably one of the most underrated defensemen in the league, though that may change with his next contract next year, especially since he’s on pace to have a career season. When you watch the Rangers play, Staal is their go-to guy when it comes to shutting down the opponent. The only problem is that New York will be tight against the cap next year, and they’ve got Dan Girardi and Vinny Prospal, among others to resign.
Braydon Coburn – Philadelphia Flyers
Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $1.4 Million/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $3 Million/season
Fantana’s Thoughts: I’m still amazed Atlanta traded Coburn for Alexei Zhitnik! Having said that, Philadelphia may have to trade Coburn themselves as they’ve already got $46 Million committed for next year including only 3 defensemen and no starting goalie. Coburn’s easily worth $3 Million a year, especially if that can be stretched out to 4+ years. The only way the Flyers can keep him is by trading one of their forwards – Scott Hartnell is most likely to go but the Flyers would like to move Daniel Briere first.
Kris Letang – Pittsburgh Penguins
Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $625,000/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $3 Million/season
Fantana’s Thoughts: If the NHL goes to the Olympics in 2014 in Russia, I think Letang will be on this team. He seems to get better with every month and he didn’t look out of place last year when Ryan Whitney and Sergei Gonchar went down with big injuries. His 33 points last year, plus the 13 points he scored in the playoffs make him a value part of Pittsburgh’s future. The problem is money, and I can’t see Pittsburgh going much higher than $3 Million a year so I expect Letang to resign in Steeltown for only 2 or 3 years.
Devin Setoguchi – San Jose Sharks
Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $765,000/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $3.5 Million/season
Fantana’s Thoughts: Playing alongside guys like Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton will certainly help you score some goals. Just ask Setoguchi, who scored 31 goals last year for San Jose. He’s in the same boat as Bobby Ryan in terms of experience and goal scoring and I think they’ll wind up with similar-sized contracts. Expect both to point to Phil Kessel’s deal in Toronto as a comparable for dollars and term.
Jonas Gustavsson – Toronto Maple Leafs
Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $810,000/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $2.75 Million/season
Jonas Gustavsson will be an RFA this summer.
Fantana’s Thoughts: The Monster has finally arrived in Toronto, having played well on the team’s road trip this past week. Notably, he scored the Leafs’ only victory of the year against Anaheim. If Gustavsson continues his strong play, it’s very likely he’ll become Toronto’s starting goaltender next season. I’m sure that won’t stop the ‘J.S. Giguere to Toronto’ rumour though.
Ryan Kesler – Vancouver Canucks
Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $1.75/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $4.5 Million/season
Fantana’s Thoughts: Ryan Kesler is the straw that stirs the drink for the Canucks and Vancouver can’t afford to let him go. Dave Nonis will get him resigned, but I hear Kesler doesn’t want to take a ‘hometown discount’. Regardless, it’s hard to place a value on Kesler and consequently, Vancouver have no choice but to pay Kesler market value.
Nicklas Backstrom – Washington Capitals
Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $850,000/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $5 Million/season
Fantana’s Thoughts: Backstrom is one of the elite playmakers in the NHL and I’d be shocked if Washington didn’t resign him. I’d also be surprised if he didn’t want to stay to play with guys like Alex Ovechkin and Mike Green. Based on Backstrom’s point-per-game average over his 2 season career thus far, I’m expecting Washington to sign him to a long-term deal, somewhere in the 5-8 year neighbourhood.
Alexander Semin – Washington Capitals
Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $5 Million/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $6 Million/season
Fantana’s Thoughts: Apparently contract negotiations have already begun and they aren’t going very smoothly. There’s still plenty of time to get a deal done, but Semin has a reputation for tough bargaining – he did go and play in Russia rather than reporting to the Caps AHL team during the lockout season and it wouldn’t be a big surprise if he defected to Russia again. I’m sure the KHL will offer him a lot of money. If it comes down to it, I think Washington would keep Backstrom over Semin.
Your Reporter in the Field,
Fantana
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Posted in NHL Commentary
Tags: Alexander Semin Anaheim Ducks Atlanta Thrashers Bobby Ryan Braydon Coburn Chicago Blackhawks Colorado Avalanche Devin Setoguchi Duncan Keith Jonas Gustavsson Jonathan Toews Josh Harding KHL Kris Letang Kyle Quincey Marc Staal Minnesota Wild New York Rangers NHL Nick Backstrom Ondrej Pavelec Patrick Kane Philadelphia Flyers Pittsburgh Penguins Ryan Kessler San Jose Sharks StayClassy.net Toronto Maple Leafs Vancouver Canucks Washington Capitals