Posts Tagged ‘Alexander Semin’

Restricted Free Agency In November?

November 3rd, 2009
Jonathan Toews is one of 3 Chicago Blackhawks that are RFA's this summer.

Jonathan Toews is one of 3 Chicago Blackhawks that are RFA's this summer.

Unrestricted free agents (UFA’s) are the most hyped free agents in the NHL but are they the best free agents? Last week, we looked at unrestricted free agents in October and today, we’ll look at restricted free agents in November.

Since the lockout, things have changed and the league has become a younger league. Top draft picks used to require a few years of ‘seasoning’ because they could crack the NHL, and even then, it would take a few more years before they became impact players. Yet in today’s league, we have 18 year olds that flat-out dominate men in their 30’s. The emergence of young talent across the league makes restricted free agents (RFA) a better deal that UFA’s. Here are some of next summer’s top RFA’s:

Bobby Ryan – Anaheim Ducks

Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $765,000/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $3.5 Million/season

Fantana’s Thoughts: Bobby Ryan exploded into the NHL last season, his first full year in the league, where he scored 31 times and was a finalist for the Calder Trophy. With the likelihood of retirement looming for Teemu Selanne, Ryan becomes an even more critical component of Anaheim’s future. $3.5 Million per season might seem pretty rich for a guy who will only have 2.5 years of NHL experience under his belt, but if stretched over 4 or 5 years, could look like a steal.

Ondrej Pavelec – Atlanta Thrashers

Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $850,000/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $3 Million/season

Fantana’s Thoughts: After watching Pavelac steal the show against the Sens on Halloween (he made 50 saves!), I’m convinced he’ll be Atlanta’s future starting goalie. During the game, CBC’s Garry Galley said that Pavelac was a few years away from becoming a star goalie in the NHL but I think it’ll happen sooner than that. This year looks like his breakthrough season and keeping Pavelac around long-term could help Atlanta keep Kovalchuk in the fold too. The key in resigning Pavelac won’t so much be about money, but rather, giving him the starting goaltender position next season.

Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith – Chicago Blackhawks

Value of Toews Contract on September 1st, 2009: $850,000/season
Value of Kane’s Contract on September 1st, 2009: $875,000/season
Value of Keith’s Contract on September 1st, 2009: $1.9 Million/season

Value of All 3’s Contracts on November 1st, 2009: $4.5 Million/season

Fantana’s Thoughts: Chicago have a big problem and the clock is ticking. Three of their best players are RFA’s and they’re all due for big raises next year. Chicago’s best bet is to try and negotiate with all three together to keep the core of their team in tact. Having said that, I think it’s clear that something, rather someone or some people, have to give. Names like Patrick Sharp and Kris Versteeg come to mind. And if the Hawks are really lucky, they’ll find a team willing to take Brian Campbell, but don’t count on it.

Kyle Quincey – Colorado Avalanche

Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $550,000/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $3 Million/season

Fantana’s Thoughts: Quincey broke out last year with L.A. and looked great quarter-backing their powerplay, scoring 38 points. He’s one of the reasons why Colorado are off to such a torrid start too, scoring 8 points and being +4. Comparable salaries are Marek Zidlicky in Minnesota ($3.5 Million) and Joe Corvo ($2.75 Million), though I think Quincey is better defensively than Corvo and Zidlicky.

Josh Harding – Minnesota Wild

Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $1.1 Million/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $2.75 Million/season

Fantana’s Thoughts: Minnesota are off to a slow start and as usual, it’s their offense that’s letting them down. Well, that and all their injuries. Either way, you have to wonder how long they’re going to hold on to Josh Harding, who happens to be their best trading chip to acquire another forward. I think Harding will get $2.75 Million next season, but it won’t be in Minnesota. Like Pavelac, the most important aspect of the negotiation will be whether Harding’s a starter next year or not.

Marc Staal – New York Rangers

Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $765,000/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $3.5 Million/season

Fantana’s Thoughts: Marc Staal is probably one of the most underrated defensemen in the league, though that may change with his next contract next year, especially since he’s on pace to have a career season. When you watch the Rangers play, Staal is their go-to guy when it comes to shutting down the opponent. The only problem is that New York will be tight against the cap next year, and they’ve got Dan Girardi and Vinny Prospal, among others to resign.

Braydon Coburn – Philadelphia Flyers

Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $1.4 Million/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $3 Million/season

Fantana’s Thoughts: I’m still amazed Atlanta traded Coburn for Alexei Zhitnik! Having said that, Philadelphia may have to trade Coburn themselves as they’ve already got $46 Million committed for next year including only 3 defensemen and no starting goalie. Coburn’s easily worth $3 Million a year, especially if that can be stretched out to 4+ years. The only way the Flyers can keep him is by trading one of their forwards – Scott Hartnell is most likely to go but the Flyers would like to move Daniel Briere first.

Kris Letang – Pittsburgh Penguins

Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $625,000/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $3 Million/season

Fantana’s Thoughts: If the NHL goes to the Olympics in 2014 in Russia, I think Letang will be on this team. He seems to get better with every month and he didn’t look out of place last year when Ryan Whitney and Sergei Gonchar went down with big injuries. His 33 points last year, plus the 13 points he scored in the playoffs make him a value part of Pittsburgh’s future. The problem is money, and I can’t see Pittsburgh going much higher than $3 Million a year so I expect Letang to resign in Steeltown for only 2 or 3 years.

Devin Setoguchi – San Jose Sharks

Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $765,000/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $3.5 Million/season

Fantana’s Thoughts: Playing alongside guys like Patrick Marleau and Joe Thornton will certainly help you score some goals. Just ask Setoguchi, who scored 31 goals last year for San Jose. He’s in the same boat as Bobby Ryan in terms of experience and goal scoring and I think they’ll wind up with similar-sized contracts. Expect both to point to Phil Kessel’s deal in Toronto as a comparable for dollars and term.

Jonas Gustavsson – Toronto Maple Leafs

Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $810,000/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $2.75 Million/season

Jonas Gustavsson will be an RFA this summer.

Jonas Gustavsson will be an RFA this summer.

Fantana’s Thoughts: The Monster has finally arrived in Toronto, having played well on the team’s road trip this past week. Notably, he scored the Leafs’ only victory of the year against Anaheim. If Gustavsson continues his strong play, it’s very likely he’ll become Toronto’s starting goaltender next season. I’m sure that won’t stop the ‘J.S. Giguere to Toronto’ rumour though.

Ryan Kesler – Vancouver Canucks

Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $1.75/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $4.5 Million/season

Fantana’s Thoughts: Ryan Kesler is the straw that stirs the drink for the Canucks and Vancouver can’t afford to let him go. Dave Nonis will get him resigned, but I hear Kesler doesn’t want to take a ‘hometown discount’. Regardless, it’s hard to place a value on Kesler and consequently, Vancouver have no choice but to pay Kesler market value.

Nicklas Backstrom – Washington Capitals

Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $850,000/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $5 Million/season

Fantana’s Thoughts: Backstrom is one of the elite playmakers in the NHL and I’d be shocked if Washington didn’t resign him. I’d also be surprised if he didn’t want to stay to play with guys like Alex Ovechkin and Mike Green. Based on Backstrom’s point-per-game average over his 2 season career thus far, I’m expecting Washington to sign him to a long-term deal, somewhere in the 5-8 year neighbourhood.

Alexander Semin – Washington Capitals

Value of Contract on September 1st, 2009: $5 Million/season
Value of Contract on November 1st, 2009: $6 Million/season

Fantana’s Thoughts: Apparently contract negotiations have already begun and they aren’t going very smoothly. There’s still plenty of time to get a deal done, but Semin has a reputation for tough bargaining – he did go and play in Russia rather than reporting to the Caps AHL team during the lockout season and it wouldn’t be a big surprise if he defected to Russia again. I’m sure the KHL will offer him a lot of money. If it comes down to it, I think Washington would keep Backstrom over Semin.

Your Reporter in the Field,

Fantana

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Is Jiri Hudler really worth $5 Million per season?

July 30th, 2009

Is it official?  Is former Detroit Red Wings forward Jiri Hudler officially done with the NHL?

Looks that way, after the KHL officially registered Hudler’s 2 year $10 Million deal with HC Dynamo Moscow on Thursday afternoon.  Who knows what the IIHF and the NHL will do, or any future impact this may or may  not have.

Jiri Hudler: KHLs newest $5 Million player

Jiri Hudler: KHL's newest $5 Million player (image courtesy of viewfrommyseats.com)

But back up for a second.  Jiri Hudler got a contract offer of $5 Million per season?  Holy crap.  Is he really worth that?  TSN reported Hudler received an offer of $15 Million over 5 years and that’s a bit more in line with what he brings to an organization.

Actually, hold that thought.  Am I the only one who isn’t terribly sure how good Jiri Hudler is?  I know the name, I know his face, but seriously, can you recall a highlight reel goal he’s scored?  I can’t.  What I can tell you is he registered a career high in points last year with the Red Wings – 57 points in 82 games.  Yeah – that’s $87,719 per point (yes, I rounded down).

When I think of $5 Million per year players, I think of stars like Martin Havlat, Jeff Carter, Simon Gagne, Alex Kovalev, and Alexander Semin to name a few.  If I’m building a team as a GM, I’d pick all these guys far before Hudler.

Is he really that good?  Mike Babcock had  a great quote in last season’s Stanley Cup players saying “the beauty of playing in Detroit is guys like Hudler get to play against other teams 3rd lines…”.  Very true – Hudler has benefit from Detroit’s depth in playing against weaker checking lines.  Also, from playing with other quality forwards.

For what it’s worth, I see Hudler more comparable to another forward the Red Wings just lost, Mikael Samuelsson, now of the Vancouver Canucks.  Their career stats are similar but paychecks aren’t – Samuelsson signed a 3 year $7.5 Million contract earlier this summer ($2.5 Million average).

Hudler – 255 games played, 127 points.
Samuelsson – 466 games played, 208 points.

According to salaries, Hudler is twice as good as Samuelsson.  That line might belong in the “Things that make you go hmmmm” category.  Whatever we may think about this, given the kind of money Hudler signed on for, he’ll be relied on as a top producing forward.  I’m not convinced he can be the best player on the ice, consistently.  Not after 255 regular season NHL games played.

Stay classy, Jiri Hudler.

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2009 Stanley Cup predictions: Conference semi finals

April 28th, 2009

Alright, back again for our first annual 2nd round predictions of the 2009 Stanley Cup Conference semi finals.  Round 1 was a little weird – I mean, other than NHLdigest.com, who else foresaw the Anaheim Ducks taking out the San Jose Sharks?  I vow to never pick Joe Thornton in a playoff hockey pool again.

Everyone is and will continue talking about the Sharks being perrenial playoff chokers.  As a long time Ottawa Senators fan, I know what Sharks fans are going through.  But you can’t even call the Senators chokers this year – you have to make the playoffs first!  Seriously, where’s Calgary in all this choker talk?  Did you know the Calgary Flames have gotten to the Stanley Cup finals three times?  You probably did, my wicked readers.  What you may not know is that it’s the only three times Calgary have advanced beyond the first round.  

Now who’s the chokers?  And Joe Thornton has never worn a Flames jersey.  

And speaking of chokers; let’s quickly look at the New York Rangers and New Jersey Devils.  Who had the biggest choke: Is it the Rangers who had the 3-1 series lead, losing three straight games?  Or is it the New Jersey Devils who had a 3-2 lead in game 7 with 80 seconds remaining in the game losing in regulation time?  Two equally embarrassing collapses, this is tough.  Your thoughts are required…

 

Anyways, onto our 2nd round playoff picks… let’s hope they go better than last round.
 

Western Conference

Detroit Red Wings vs Anaheim Ducks
Burgundy: Detroit in 7 games; “Ducks fly together”… unless there are Red Wings around.  Is it me, or does Ryan Getzlaf remind you of Charlie Conway from the Mighty Ducks?  You know you agree. The Sharks never had anyone infront of Hiller and this series will feature 70% more screened shots from Johan Franzen, Thomas Holstrom and other Wings.
Fantana: Detroit in 6 games; Anaheim surprised us all in the first round against San Jose but I’m positive Detroit will crush the Ducks this round.  Even though Giguere didn’t play against San Jose, he has been Jonas Hiller’s mentor for the past few seasons.  And anyone who’s been mentored by a goalie who plays goal with a jazz flute is in trouble.
Mantooth: Detroit in 5 games; One team in this series is going to get their feathers clipped and I don’t see it being Detroit.  The Red Wings walked all over the Blue Jackets, with the only close game being the last. With a nice long break they will come out guns a-blazin’.  Franzen and crew are going to make this one look effortless.
Tambland: Anaheim in 6 games; Not really sure what to say anymore. My logic last round seems to have failed. I’m gonna have to flip a coin on this one. If it’s heads, the Ducks (because Ducks have heads). If it’s tails, the Ducks (because Ducks have tails). Oh. Well there you go.  
Baxter: Anaheim in 6 games; Since I totally blew my San-Jose-Will-Smoke-The-Ducks prediction from the first round, I’m going have to humbly eat crow, er, duck…um, never mind.  Who knew that Anaheim would outscore SJ 9-2 in third periods?  Specialty teams?  Forget it.  Ducks outscored SJ 12-5 at even strength.  Listen, this is all about defence.  I’m scared.  Another Duck championship is starting to look like a real possibility if they get past the Wings.  Do you think I’m drinking too much purple Kool-Aid?  Think way back… Anaheim beat Detroit in six games two years ago in the West finals on its way to the franchise’s lone Stanley Cup title.  Against Ottawa (ahem).

Vancouver Canucks vs Chicago Blackhawks
Burgundy: Vancouver in 7 games; Although I hate the thought of betting against Patrick Kane, Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook (the list goes on), I hate the idea of betting against Luongo even more.  The difference will be the extra week worth of rest the Canucks got while the Hawks were battling the Flames.  So yes, I’m voting for Vancouver, despite the fact Chicago has more Canadian-born players on their team (the Hawks have 15 and the Canucks have 14).
Fantana: Vancouver in 6 games; Luongo is like a machine in a constant cat-like readiness and he will stonewall the young Hawks all series long.  Chicago’s only hope is to set Marty Havlat’s kicking legs into motion in Vancouver’s crease.  Failing that, they could try to clone Dustin Byfuglien and put two Byfuglien’s in front of Luongo.  That might work.
Mantooth: Chicago in 6 games; If I were to pit a Killer Whale against a Hawk in a fight, I would put my money on the Whale hands down!  The only problem is, this is one awesome Hawk.  This series will be all about offense, I think that Toews, Havlet and Versteeg have the edge over the Sundin and Sedin’s.
Tambland: Vancouver in 5 games; Well well well.  So Chicago thinks they can ruin Canada’s Cup dream twice in one playoff.  I don’t think so.  Here’s the way I see it.  Vancouver is probably the next Canadian team due to make the Finals, seeing as Edmonton, Calgary and Ottawa have all done it recently.
Baxter: Vancouver in 6 games; Shut down the speed.  Slow down the breakout.  Make Luongo drink water.  Canucks are well rested.  Then again, did Chicago ever break a sweat?  Khabibulin gave up a combined 9 goals in Games 3 and 4 (both losses to Calgary).  And then for some bizarre reason, he stood on his head in Game 6.  Poor Iggy is still licking his wounds.  If the Canucks keep rolling, they will have to come up with new product lines at IKEA.  The Sundin doorMat.  The Sedin twin bunk bed.  The Matias Ohlund.  Whatever that means.

Shut down the speed.  Slow down the breakout.  Make Luongo drink water (http://www.theprovince.com/Sports/Luongo+doesn+want+talk+dehydration/1528581/story.html).  Canucks are well rested.  Then again, did Chicago ever break a sweat?  Khabibulin gave up a combined 9 goals in Games 3 and 4 (both losses to Calgary).  And then for some bizarre reason, he stood on his head in Game 6.  Poor Iggy is still licking his wounds (http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=420536).  If the Canucks keep rolling, they will have to come up with new product lines at IKEA.  The Sundin doorMat.  The Sedin twin bunk bed.  The Matias Ohlund.  Whatever that means.

 

 

Eastern Conference

Boston Bruins vs Carolina Hurricanes
Burgundy: Boston in 6 games; I don’t think Carolina has the same forward depth Boston has.  As a Sens fan, I’m looking forward to seeing Zdeno Chara put Joe Corvo through the boards.  And Erik Cole too.  I just kinda don’t like him.  It’s an irrational hate thing because of his terrible stint in Edmonton.
Fantana: Boston in 6 games; It’s the year of the Bruin and Bruins are so tough, they can stand through Hurricanes.  Carolina will throw everything they’ve got at Boston but it won’t be enough.  The Hurricanes playoff drive is going to Staal in the second round.  See what I did there… pretty impressive, I know.
Mantooth: Boston in 6 games; The Canes finally get 2 straight wins when they needed it the most and Eric Staal is the man of the hour.  Now the Bruins on the other hand, were pretty much given their series on a golden platter and are all fresh going into this series.  This will be a straight up battle. and a tough one to call, but I have to side with my gut feeling.
Tambland: Boston in 6 games; Again, this one goes to the B’s.  Only because it is a good opportunity to ‘bruin’ Paul Maurice’s comeback in coaching.  Sorry.  I really am quite happy that I discovered “bruin” could replace “ruin” in most instances.
Baxter: Boston in 6 games; Tim Thomas (6 goals against MTL, with an uncomprehensible .946 save percentage) will be well rested after sitting since April 23rd when the B’s embarassed les Habs in four straight.  While Cam Ward kept his team in it long enough to beat NJ in game 7 (in probably one of the most bizarre final one minute 30 seconds I have ever seen in a playoff game), his record versus the B’s this season has been humbling (0-4-0, with a 3.90 GAA).  Chara only needs to flash one stat: his dimensions at 6’9″, 255 pounds.  His dad was a Greco-Roman wrestler for Czechoslovakia at the 1976 Olympics.  ’Nuff said.  And what does a tailgate party look like in the Carolinas?  Take a look.

Washington Capitals vs Pittsburgh Penguins
Burgundy: Pittsburgh in 6 games; Nothing witty here.  Marc-Andre Fleury might be the hottest goalie in the Eastern Conference and doesn’t have a weak glove side (see Henrik Lundqvist).  Pittsburgh’s forwards will score on those odd-man rushes the New York Rangers screwed up.  I’m not convinced Washington can play as team for a whole game; whereas Pittsburgh can.
Fantana: Washington in 7 games; While most fans are expecting a Malkin versus Ovechkin showdown, or even a Crosby versus Ovechkin showdown, I think this will be Alexander Semin’s emergence as a playoff star.  Semin scored 5 goals against the Rangers and he didn’t even have to drop his gloves.  Marc Staal got lucky he didn’t get beaten like a drum again, but Crosby & co. should watch their backs.
Mantooth: Washington in 7 games; Alright let’s get this out of the way, we all know that Gary B has a raging hard-on about this series.  Do you blame him?  This is going to be the series of the entire playoffs. Ovechkin & Semin vs. Crosby & Malkin.  Now I have 3 of those 4 in my pool, and all I want to see is high scoring by those individuals.  And I need this series to drag out to 7 games to make it worth while.  I see the Caps on a high making the comeback from being down 3-1 being the deciding factor.
Tambland: ** Editors note: this pick was made at 4pm on Tuesday April 28th** Pittsburgh in 6  games;  That’s right.  I’m calling it early.  This could completely be screwed up by the end of the [Tuesday] night.  But I’m going to have to go with the Penguins on this one.  The Caps are going to be too tired, and Pittsburgh looked awesome last round.  Plus, the Russian Ice Hockey Federation is still mad at me, so I’m still mad at them. 
Baxter: Pittsburgh in 6 games; Bettman must be doing cartwheels.  Ouch.  Bad visual on that one.  Sorry about that.  How about this instead: the top three in scorers this year playing head-to-head in what will easily be the series to watch.  Fun fact: which two teams were the worst in the Eastern Conference three years ago?  Answer: Pittsburgh and Washington.  This will be like watching a fat kid at an all-you-can-eat buffet: Ovechkin has 10 goals and 11 assists in 16 games against Pittsburgh. Malkin has six goals and 11 assists in 12 games and Crosby has eight goals and 18 assists in 15 games against Washington.  Apologies to all the fat kids out there.  And the parents who feed them

 

Closing Thoughts:
Mantooth: Dorothy Mantooth is a Saint, A SAINT!!!
Fantana:  Your reporter in the field, Brian Fantana.
Tambland:  I love playoffs.
Baxter:  “woof”.
Burgundy:  Stay classy, conference semi finals.
 

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