Okay okay… so I blew another trade rumour. Big deal. It’s not like anyone not named Burgundy is counting, right? The only thing I’m trying to figure out now is if I was dumb enough to actually put money on this or not… oh God… what are the odds Burgundy doesn’t read this blog?

Anyway, for the entire season, I’ve been singing the praises of Ilya Kovalchuk and the Atlanta Thrashers. All along, I’ve been talking about how they would eventually get a deal done and keep Kovy in Hot-lanta. Well, I was wrong.

In case you missed it, here’s the deal:

To Atlanta: Johnny Oduya, Niclas Bergfors, Patrice Cormier, NJ’s 1st and 2nd round picks in 2010

To New Jersey: Ilya Kovalchuk and Anssi Salmela, ATL’s 2nd round pick in 2010

This is a strange deal for both teams. My first thought I saw this trade was “ew”.

To start with, I’m blown away by Ilya Kovalchuk. Just when you think he’s grown up and gained some maturity, he does his best Denace the Menace impression. All season, he acted like he wanted to remain a Thrasher by saying and doing all the right things. Maybe he never explicitly said he wanted to stay in Atlanta, but he never declared that he had no intention of resigning either. He acted like he was all about ‘the team’ and that he wanted to play for a contender. Didn’t he pressure Atlanta GM Don Waddell to bring in a better supporting cast for him to play with? I understand he’s Atlanta’s captain and leader, but does it not seem a little under-handed to make those kind of demands, essentially get them, and not re-sign? Atlanta are a good team this year and I believe they will still make the playoffs. To make matters worse, Kovalchuk’s apparently demanding to become the league’s highest paid player. One question Ilya: Why?

Remember when Paul Kariya was in the prime of his career and became a UFA in Anaheim? The Ducks offered him a few different deals worth $10 Million a season and Kariya rejected them, instead, opting for a 1 year contract for $1.2 Million with Colorado so he could have a chance to win the Stanley Cup. At least you can say Kariya’s decision wasn’t about the money. He truly wanted to play on legitimate Cup contender, and he believed Colorado was his best bet. Fair enough. That sucks if you were a Ducks fan, but fair enough.

Back to Kovalchuk. He rejected two offers from Atlanta this season. The first was a 12 year deal reportedly worth $101 Million. When Ilya voiced his desire to become the league’s highest paid player, Atlanta acquiesced, offering him a $70 Million contract over 7 years because the $101 Million deal only averaged $8.4 Million per season. Somehow, both offers were flatly rejected. I’m guessing Kovalchuk doesn’t follow the stock markets and I’m betting when he reads the daily paper, he skips the business section and goes straight to the cartoons. Is he not aware of the massive global recession? Obama’s Trillion dollar budget deficit? America’s overwhelming unemployment figures? A $70 or $101 Million contract is way more than anyone needs! The Cherry on the top is that from the way Waddell has described the trade talks, apparently neither of those figures were high enough for Kovalchuk.

When I look at Atlanta’s return, it doesn’t seem high enough. I feel like the return they got for Marian Hossa a couple years ago was roughly the same, maybe even a little better. It’s hard to say, but I suppose like all big trades, this one will come down to how the prospects develop, namely Patrice Cormier and that 1st round draft pick, whoever that may be.

However, when you approach the trade from a ‘rental player’ perspective, which Kovalchuk absolutely will be for the Devils, the return doesn’t seem so bad. Bergfors is an emerging young player who will likely become a top 6 forward and have a good NHL career. Oduya is an affordable, defensive blueliner who plays a lot of big minutes for the Devils and their no-name defense. Cormier, for all the bad plays he’s made in 2010, and there are several, will probably play in the NHL next year. So overall, it’s not a terrible return for Kovalchuk. I think those three players will probably offset most of Kovalchuk’s production over the course of a full season, while adding some depth to the Thrasher lineup. There’s no ‘name’ player coming back in return, but there never usually is with this type of trade. Go ask Sens fans if you don’t believe me.

I also wonder about New Jersey in all this. Adding Kovalchuk up front looks good on paper, but giving up Bergfors and Oduya makes me believe they’ve actually lost ground with this deal. Having said that, a Parise-Zajac-Kovalchuk line is a pretty scary thought. This line will need to be really, really good to offset the loss of depth.

I’m also surprised that this was apparently the best offer out there. For all the rumours involving the Los Angeles Kings and the Chicago Blackhawks, I’m surprised nobody could beat New Jersey’s package. It could just be that Atlanta were aiming too high and all the other teams in the mix didn’t want to overpay for a rental player. In that case, I say good call.

Finally, I wonder how Kovalchuk will do in New Jersey’s defense-first system. It should be interesting. My best guess is that he’ll look just like Gaborik did in Minnesota – constantly stymied.

I used to really like Ilya Kovalchuk but this whole ordeal has left me a little sour on him. Here’s to Atlanta having a great finish to their season and to making the playoffs. It would truly be awesome if the Thrashers met the Devils in the playoffs and Atlanta came out on top. That would be some major divine retribution! Let’s hope that happens.

Your Reporter in the Field,

Fantana

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